#20 - LHP Ixan Henderson
Scouting grades: Fastball: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Sweeper: 50 | Cutter: 45 | Curveball: 40 | Command: 50 | Overall: 40
Background: Henderson was the Cardinals’ 8th-round selection in the 2023 MLB Draft out of Fresno State. After a solid freshman and sophomore season with the Bulldogs, he went on to post a 3.74 ERA over 89 innings as their Friday night starter in 2023, striking out 100 while walking just 34. Henderson pitched a handful of innings at Palm Beach to close out his 2023 season and would ultimately start his 2024 season right where he left off, pitching to a 2.10 ERA in 73 innings for the Palm Beach Cardinals before a late season promotion to Peoria.
Scouting Report: Henderson is a fluid mover on the mound with a deceptive delivery paired with a lower ¾ arm slot. His fastball isn’t overly explosive, as it typically sits in the 91-92 MPH range, but he’s able to generate above-average ride relative to his slot. It averages 16.2 inches of induced vertical break and 10.4 inches of arm-side run, coming from a 5.6-foot vertical release height. It especially performed well against righties but did face some troubles against same-handed batters, who slashed .361/.452/.472 against it while whiffing just 12.9% of the time. I think these struggles can be attributed to the fact that his secondary offerings had a wide velocity gap from his fastball, and FSL hitters sat on the heater. Henderson’s best secondary offering against lefties is a sweeper, which he throws 23% of the time in those matchups and features 13 inches of glove-side movement at 79 mph.
Henderson drops his arm slot when he uses the pitch, but left-handed hitters were still fooled by the pitch, whiffing 42% of the time and producing a .246 wOBA. Henderson also mixes in a slow 74 mph curveball, which found great success at Palm Beach, but I question the viability of the offering at that velocity against stronger competition, though it could certainly work as a strike-stealer. Touching back on the velocity gap, Henderson debuted a cutter in the Arizona Fall League at 88 mph with 7.4 inches of ride and 2 inches of glove-side movement. The pitch will certainly help to bring his arsenal together against both righties and lefties, and I’m interested to see how it plays in 2025. Against righties, Henderson relies on an 84 mph changeup as his main secondary that hasn't been a true bat-missing pitch for him but found solid results on balls in play.
He will also mix in his curveball and sweeper 16% and 7% of the time, respectively. Henderson does not project to have a true whiff-inducing pitch in his arsenal, but the pitch mix can certainly work to manage contact well, especially with the addition of his new cutter. While his raw stuff probably isn’t top-30 caliber, Henderson is deceptive and commands his five-pitch mix well and has the pitchability you want to see out of a young starting pitching prospect. The Cardinals have loved this archetype of a pitching prospect recently, but I do think Henderson has more interesting traits than some of the other pitching prospects in the organization who fit a similar mold. The velocity probably will have to tick up a bit, but I think he has the athleticism to potentially unlock more, and with the arsenal and command, he could develop into a backend starter type.
Future: Henderson is the prototypical pitchability deceptive Cardinals lefty, which could help him carve out a role as a back of the rotation starter. I have some questions on whether the stuff will hold up in the upper levels for that to come to fruition, but he made a great impression in his first full season in the Cardinals minor league system.
